Covid 19: A Mind of Its Own, Lockdown or No Lockdown
In this blog are my observations and opinions looking at data from Worldometers.com. I invite you to make your own conclusions which I expect may be different depending from what context you are coming.
Did Lockdowns Help Contain the Virus? A Pattern Emerges…
The bell-shaped curve of daily deaths as seen in the graphs above seems to Define a Pattern of Covid 19. This pattern is outlined in the timeline below. It is consistent among countries whether there was a lockdown or no lockdown with 2 exceptions, India and China. Lockdowns did not significantly change the curve of the virus.
Approximate Timeline of Covid-19
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- 1 month to peak numbers
- 2 weeks plateau at peak
- 2 ½- 3 months to come down to trough numbers
- 1 month plateau in the trough
- 4 ½ Second peak starts but is lower to minuscule when compared to the first peak
The predictability of this timeline is fascinating and actually fits the model presented in prior blogs stating the virus can be active for up to 60 days and probably more.
India implemented a viral protocol used in 2018, had the strictest and longest lockdown during which no one could leave the house for any reason, not even food. India deaths recently peaked after 4 months instead of 1 month seen in other countries. This is 3 times the time it took for other countries to peak. Is this because of poor testing? Or does increasing lockdown time increase the length of time for the virus to peak? Is there another reason?
China took 1 month to peak numbers and 1 month to trough numbers and never had a second peak. This short length to achieve a trough is not seen in any other country. China’s low D/M is not seen in any other country over 5 M people. Why was this? What was their criteria for testing? Are they more selective in who they check for Covid? Are they not divulging what they are really seeing? Do they know something about treatment we do not? Are they better at lockdowns?
Sweden, who had no lockdown, had the same rate of rise and descent as other countries in lockdowns but with a longer peak plateau period. 79% of Covid deaths were in nursing homes. They do not have a second surge in deaths. Their D/M has changed very little in several months. D/M in Sweden’s neighbors who did lockdown were less than Sweden’s: Norway 50, Denmark 112, and Finland 62, Netherlands 372. However, these countries are having second surges and Sweden as predicted is not. Denmark who locked down extremely fast with only a few known cases in the country once was touted as having the best and fastest reaction to Covid. However Denmark is now having a significant second surge coming out of lockdown more so than Norway and Finland even though they have similar populations. Time will tell if the number of deaths were curtailed by lockdowns.*
US who had variable lockdowns of different states at different times is showing a second surge after states came out of lockdowns but the surge is not as big as the first surge and deaths are lower. Deaths have exceeded Sweden’s D/M so would it have better to have not locked down? Can you compare countries with different populations? We know from NYC, density of population matters.
US has the highest number of deaths in the world. A wake up call as 40% of our population is obese, a major risk factor for Covid death. People may not have been treated soon enough being told there is nothing to do but stay home. Is Covid the primary or secondary cause of death? How are statistics being reported?
Italy is fascinating in their number of cases overwhelmed their medical system, having an older population and lower vitamin D levels. To date, they are having a second surge of cases; however the death rate is low and lower than similar countries. Could they have had some herd immunity before they locked down?
Germany who is said to have had the most efficient way of dealing with the virus in that they quarantined the sick, locked down everyone but essential workers, and sent health care providers to the sick to curtail the spread. This was a plan they have implemented before. Coming out of quarantine they too are experiencing a rebound in deaths but deaths are lower than the first surge and lower overall than many countries.
Canada’s Deaths/M is 246 and rising in a second surge as they are coming out of a strict and long lockdown with large fines for disobeying lockdown laws. Their rate of rise of deaths is not as fast as the first surge.
In conclusion,
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- Lockdown or no lockdown, the rate of rise and fall of Covid 19 seems to be similar with the exception of India and China. India had an extended length of time to reach peak numbers after a strict and long lockdown and lack of ability to test people. Lockdowns did not change the curve of Covid significantly.
- Population density, multiple co-morbidities, and age all been reported to increase the number of cases and deaths from Covid*
- Currently new cases are rising throughout the world; however, deaths are decreasing. This is consistent with all countries.*
- Lockdowns seemed to curtail the number of cases and subsequent deaths in the beginning, especially when no treatment was known.
- We are not at the end of this virus and the numbers may change significantly within a year’s time making it too early to tell if we actually saved lives by lockdowns.
- Currently, the death rate of Covid is 3% which means 97 % people survive. Mortality from the flu is 10% but with a shorter season and lesser numbers.*** This is data of the current “science”. Why then are schools still shut down? Why are bars and restaurants still closed? No country has ever gone unscathed by lockdowns economically and emotionally.
The question still remains, ‘In the end, will any lives have been ‘saved’ by lockdowns at the sacrifice of the world’s economy, an increase in mental health problems, other health problems, and suicides. Why are we still in so much fear of a virus for which we have treatment? Why are we still wearing masks? Do masks have potential to decrease our immune systems or are they protective? Why are doctors not addressing obesity effectively in this country? These are my questions.
Have an awesome day. Dr. D