Coronavirus Deaths in Graph Perspective
From yesterday’s text, the questions were:
- After which country (1-8) do you feel we should pattern ourselves in order to better contain the virus?
- Which country (1-8) currently has daily deaths of Coronavirus under control?
Things to know about the graphs:
- The graphs are of Daily Deaths (y axis) over Time (x-axis)
- The y axis or vertical axis’s scales vary for each graph. Look only at the curves.
HOW DID YOU ANSWER THE QUESTIONS? WHICH COUNTRY DID YOU PICK? (For reference, at the end of this blog are each country’s statistics concerning total deaths, deaths per capita, and population)
# 6 Sweden was the country picked by most people who were asked these questions in a pilot study done by myself
Look at Sweden’s graph. Sweden had a large surge of deaths in the beginning with a peak for about a month which is a shorter period of time than most, followed by a steady decrease of deaths over 4 months. This was followed by 3 months with few daily deaths before the second surge of cases hit. During the second surge, however, even though case numbers were higher than the first surge; the number of deaths decreased to approximately 25-30% of the original surge of deaths. Their second surge only lasted a month versus 3-4 months with the first surge. Sweden exhibits herd immunity as they had no lockdown, no mask mandates, but did learn to protect the nursing homes and elderly. Herd immunity caused a lot of deaths in the first surge, but very few deaths in the second surge.
Using the stats below *Column A. Sweden has the lowest number of deaths of the 8 countries presented, and is ranked number 31st in the world for the highest number of deaths in the world. **Column B: Sweden also has the smallest population of the countries listed, and ***Column C , is ranked 24th in the world for the number of deaths per million people.
Sweden traded a high number of deaths for a lower recurrence rate and no businesses, restaurants, bars, or schools were closed.
#5 France was the second most country picked in the pilot study
Look at France’s graph. France with a population of 65 Million ranked #7 in the world for the highest number of deaths, ranked 22nd in countries populations, and 13th in deaths per million people having more deaths per capita than Sweden, Canada, Germany, and India. France was under strict lock down, people were required to carry a permission slip to be able to be in the streets, and had strict mask mandates. Look at the curve. France’s first surge peaked at about the same time as Sweden, maintained the peak for a little longer, and then had a faster decline over 2 months. In the second surge France’s daily deaths so far are about 50% of the number of their first surge. However, currently the curve has not come down for 2 months whereas Sweden’s second surge curve was down in a month. Was herd immunity the difference?
Other Countries. No one in the pilot study picked any of the other countries as their answer to the questions.
#8 Germany. 
I find this graph very interesting. Germany was applauded by all countries in having “beat the virus” by immediate lockdowns, mask mandates, and having their health care workers go to patient’s houses for testing and treatment. Certainly, their numbers of deaths are low as seen below. They rank 67th in the world’s most deaths. The have far fewer deaths than France even though their population is 20 million people more than France. However, they did not reach herd immunity by any means as seen in a higher number of deaths in the second surge as compared to the first. They had the number of deaths under control during lockdown but not the virus! Their second surge is currently ongoing and still increasing during their second surge.
#2 India.
For the second largest country in the world, India did a great job of decreasing the curve of deaths right away by becoming a police state and arresting people if they left their homes. Once this lockdown was less restricted, the number of deaths went up and has stayed up for seven months! They are still in their first surge as the virus moves across their country! They also have the lowest number of deaths per million by far but their numbers have plateaued at a moderate level. We are not far enough into the curve to find out if they ultimately will have saved lives.
#4 Italy, #3 UK, # 7 Canada
#4. Italy locked down during the first surge when their ICU’s and hospitals became over- burdened. The daily deaths rose sharply to a month long peak and had a swift decline. Their second surge curve looks like their first surge curve, repeating the same number of deaths in their second surge. It seems lockdowns and mask mandates did not prevent another large second surge. This is a common graph to see.
#3 UK has a similar curve as France. UK’s second surge is about 50% less than their first surge which is better than Italy, about the same as France. Like France, the curve has not started a downward trend yet. The UK is headed into another strict lockdown because of the consistently increasing number of cases and deaths.
#7 Canada . Canada’s second surge is about 30% less than their first surge. Their numbers deaths are coming down but more slowly than they did in their first surge. They will have the same number of deaths overall during both the first and second surge. Canada has had strictly enforced lockdowns. Did they help? Time will tell.
With the graph of Sweden showing decreased number of deaths in a shorter period of time with longer periods of time when the virus is quiet, “Why are countries afraid to do what Sweden did? Protect the elderly and sick but allow healthy children and adults to live normal lives to create a herd immunity?”
#1 USA.
Unfortunately, we claim the highest number of deaths in the world! The curve is different because the virus hit the US in waves at different times in different parts of the country.
When you look at California and Florida graphs (not shown here) they look very similar even though they both had very different approaches. Why? Both locked down initially, then Florida opened wide open and California locked down more. We will see if the deaths in Florida go below that of California as the state reaches herd immunity. Time will tell. Currently in the second surge, if stats are correct, the US 3rd surge deaths will be as high as the first surge. What have we accomplished?
The fear, of course, is if we let herd immunity reign, would we have more deaths than we do now? Would our hospital system be overwhelmed? or would we have less deaths ultimately? These questions are imperative to answer definitively.
Statistics of the 8 Countries
- *Column A: Graphs 1-8 were placed in numerical order from the highest number of deaths (1) to lowest number of deaths (8). RT#D = Rank of Total # of Deaths in the world T#D =Total # of Deaths
- ** Column B.: Countries are ranked from the highest to the lowest population = RPOP
- *** Column C: Shows the number of deaths per 1 million people =#D/MP
I encourage you to keep looking at these graphs as time goes by. What do you see? Do the graphs make you change your mind as to how the US should proceed in lockdowns or no lockdowns. What are your thoughts of herd immunity?
Every day I hear and feel frustration and sadness in the voices of my patients. A forced new way of living has been imposed in which the majority of people do not thrive. People are tired of being controlled and tired of being shamed into submission. So ask yourself, What good thing can you do for you in this moment, so you take control of yourself and your dreams again? Dream big and act on it. Life as you wish to live it, does not have to stop. Be creative. Be yourself. Be free where ever you are. Find your happiness. Life is amazing and we are here to live it, not to be shut down by it. These actions in my opinion will dimmish division inherently and encourage the flow of peace and harmony.
Have a most incredible day…… Dr D. and Happy Birthday Mom!