UK Covid Data Reviewed

April 8, 2022

The Covid vaccine roll out was initially said to prevent infection. Over time and with more and more variants sweeping across the world, it was apparent the vaccines no longer prevented people from becoming infected with Covid and there were many “breakthrough” cases. Once determined the vaccines did not prevent infection, the vaccines were then said to decrease severe disease leading to lower hospitalizations and death rates. Does this still remain to be true?

UK Covid Surveillance Report Data

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) published Covid surveillance reports to monitor the vaccination program. The first report published with Covid data was in May of 2021. The first report published showing the breakdown of statistics by vaccination status was in September of 2021. Using the raw, unadjusted data presented, we can see cases, hospitalizations and deaths per 100,000 by vaccination status.

The following is a breakdown and comparison from September of 2021 through March of 2022 using the UK reports from the following dates which can be reviewed at the end of this article: September (9/9/21), January (1/6/22), February (2/24/22), March (3/10/22).

Trend for Number of Cases of Covid in Unvaccinated vs Vaccinated

Supporting the notion that vaccines do not stop infection, the trend of cases from September to March shows a significant drop among unvaccinated persons and a rise among vaccinated persons as depicted in Figure 1. Using the first table (Table 4) under the September report, cases among persons not vaccinated totaled 6,750.1. This total is achieved by adding the last column. Cases among persons vaccinated with 2 doses totaled 5,591.4, achieved by adding the persons vaccinated column. The same calculations were made for March cases.

Using the following equation, the percentage increase or decrease was calculated:

Percentage Increase = [ (Final Value – Starting Value) / |Starting Value| ] × 100.

From September to March, unvaccinated cases decreased by 27% and vaccinated cases increased by 130%. This concludes that vaccinations do not stop people from becoming infected with Covid.

Trend for Hospitalizations and Deaths in Unvaccinated vs Vaccinated

Using the raw numbers comparing hospitalizations and deaths by vaccination status, one might conclude that the vaccinations are working as the vaccinated deaths and hospitalizations are consistently lower than the unvaccinated deaths and hospitalizations. This is summarized in Table 1:

As demonstrated in Table 1, unvaccinated persons comprise the majority of hospitalizations and deaths per 100,000 for every report. Of note, vaccination status went from two shots to three between January and February, as shown in parentheses.

While these numbers have led many to believe the vaccinations are working, how does this hold up when comparing trends? What happens if we look at the trend of hospitalizations and deaths from September 2021 to March 2022?

Figure 2 shows the trend of hospitalizations from September to March. Unvaccinated hospitalizations decreased from 353.1 to 216.5, while vaccinated hospitalizations increased from 79.5 to 132.3.

Using the same percentage change calculation as above, this amounts to a 38% decrease in hospitalizations among unvaccinated persons and a 66% increase in hospitalizations among vaccinated persons from September to March. Of note, the vaccinated numbers from September are of those double vaccinated versus those triple vaccinated in March.

Figure 3 shows the trend of deaths from September 9, 2021, to March 10, 2022. Unvaccinated deaths decreased from 230.6 to 219.9, while vaccinated deaths increased from 57.5 to 136.3. The percentage increase or decrease was calculated, revealing a 4.6% decrease in unvaccinated deaths and a 137% increase in vaccinated deaths.

If the vaccination is working to prevent serious disease and death, why are we seeing a 66% increase in hospitalizations and a 137% in deaths among the vaccinated? Shouldn’t the addition of the booster shot have caused a trend over time to decrease hospitalizations and deaths rather than increase?

This leaves the remaining question – why is the trend of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths increasing among the vaccinated but decreasing among the unvaccinated?

Note the UK has stopped publishing Covid Surveillance Data as of April 2022 citing they have lifted the vaccine and mask mandates and therefore are unable to accurately assess vaccination status, cases, hospitalizations, and death from Covid with accuracy.