What can we say about Coronavirus data?

The below numbers were shown on the last blog. I updated Deaths/M 7 days later using Worldometers.info/coronavirus.*  I picked 7 countries differing as wildly as I could find in the way in which they approached containing the virus.

Data is only as good as the accuracy of your numbers.  Germany has one of the best laboratory and tracking systems in the world, and their viral protocol was already in place before Covid 19 hit.  Germany has one of the lowest Deaths/Million.* India had one of the worst testing and laboratory systems; however, they also had a viral protocol in place that was first exercised in 2018. India’s low deaths/million could be affected by low numbers being tested. This prior preparation may have certainly affected the decrease in numbers from the onset.  Each country has a different and fascinating story to tell from which we all need to learn.

What does the above data tell us?  In US, Sweden, Canada, Italy, India the virus is still active. When you delve further into the Worldometer site, you also see the larger and denser the population, the more active cases and deaths.  For example Wuhan had most of the deaths in China with a very low rate of deaths in all other cities. Wuhan was immediately closed off to contain the virus. Germany and China’s Death/million numbers have remained the same meaning the virus is not as active as it is in other countries, although it is still present in both countries when you look at the daily deaths.  This is one of the reasons why some people are predicting the virus will be active throughout 2021!

Using Graphs from Worldometer Daily Deaths, I looked at the number of days it took for the virus to cause the curve to significantly rise to around 30-50 daily deaths.  At 30-50 daily deaths all curves took a sharp upward turn.  I then looked at the number of days it took to reach the Peak of the virus’s activity which was 2 ½ to 5 weeks, excluding India.  I also looked at how many days it took for the virus to go down to reach a low dip in the curve. It is interesting to me the countries are all similar in these numbers whether they were in lockdown or no lockdown (Sweden).   India who had one of the most restrictive lockdowns, had the longest rate of rise to its peak Sept 11  as lockdown restrictions were eased.  From the date of onset to the rate of significant rise is 2 days in China to the US’s longest of 16 days probably due to the spread across the country.  Covid 19 moves fast giving no one much time to prepare.  It took approximately 2 times the amount of time to come down as it did for the virus to reach its peak!  It seems very consistent in this aspect.

Next week I will present what the Daily Graphs look like and will have more discussion as to whether lockdowns work.

Have an awesome Day.  Take your vitamins and stay well!  Dr. D

• • Worldometer manually analyzes, validates, and aggregates data from thousands of sources in real time and provides global COVID-19 live statistics…  Worldometer is cited as a source in over 10,000 published books and more than 6,000 professional journal articles and was voted as one of the best free reference websites by the American Library Association (ALA), the oldest and largest library association in the world.US
  • https://www.euro.who.int/en/countries/germany/news/news/2020/2/well-prepared-laboratories-are-first-line-of-defence-against-novel-coronavirus-in-europe