Time Line of Covid 19 in US and Around The World. What Can We Learn?
The information contained in the next few blogs mostly comes from Wikipedia and Worldometers. Searching the internet for reliable sources is difficult. All numbers are most likely incorrect as reporting is not perfect. However, there emerges commonalities between many countries. All imposed lockdowns and lifted lockdowns were done stepwise.
No one can deny if you have no contact with another person, place or thing; you will not get infected with any human to human communicable disease. Therefore, all forms of isolation will work to diminish a communicable disease.
However, to render the virus extinct, meaning it has no host in which to replicate, takes total isolation which has not been done to date. India comes the closest to total isolation as the government ordered people to stay in their homes and not go outside at all for anything for 21 days. The government goes door to door to make sure everyone has food. This type of lockdown was first established and implemented in India in 2018. Therefore, the Indian people knew exactly what was expected of them. However, when the lockdown was lifted in India on June 7, cases and deaths soared and are still rising. (see graph below)
Sixty days is the longest number of days viral shedding of Covid has been detected. Therefore, at minimum, a quarantine/ lockdown should be more than 60 days if the goal is to try to extinguish the virus as much as possible. We know India was locked down for 77 days and still they saw a sharp increase in cases and deaths. (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7253087)
China first informed the world of COVID December 31, 2019. When a virulent infection hits people unexpectedly, it most likely has already spread to thousands before it can be contained. See graph below as to the first dates Covid was recorded in several countries.. Interestingly, they were all within 28 days of each other. This is how fast the pandemic spread.
Timeline of WHO affecting all countries:
WHO initially denied human to human transmission of Covid
January 14 when WHO stated,” there may have been limited transmission mainly through family members”.
January 22 WHO stated “there was evidence of human-to-human transmission but more investigation was needed”.
January 30 WHO declared ‘Covid 19 a public health emergency of international concern’.
March 11 WHO declared Covid 19 a pandemic. *
Time line of Covid in US as per CDC:
CDC alerted MDs Jan 8, 2020 to look out for patients with symptoms of Covid 19.
CDC was developing guidance for testing, management, and home care
CDC was developing a diagnostic test to detect the virus. At this time testing was only done at CDC.
January 17, public screening at airports started
January 21, Activated Emergency Operations Center as CDC confirms first Covid case in US. In China, more than 200 infected and 4 killed by Covid**
January 31 Travel restrictions to and from China implemented Feb 2 along with Australia, Germany, Italy, and New Zealand.
Feb 3 US Declares Public Health Emergency
Mar 6-21 Passengers on California Cruise Ship Test Positive
Mar 13 Trump declares Covid-10 Pandemic
March 19 California goes into Lockdown
March 22 NYC goes into lockdown***
My review of other countries followed a similar timetable as above. this will be covered in future blogs.
According to Wikipedia, after China went into lockdown, 88 countries went into lockdowns. Italy was the first on March 9. 26 countries went into Lockdown before the US did on Mar 19. Not all countries were listed on the wikepedia site.
The US was one of the first countries after Italy to impose travel restrictions. Most countries imposed travel restrictions when they went into lockdown.
The question, ‘Did lockdowns help contain the virus?’ is partially answered in looking at the number of deaths/million. Population density is also an important factor. It is too early to have the complete answer at this date. However in many countries, you will see case numbers increasing and deaths decreasing in all countries especially those who had an initial surge of deaths.
More later.. Have an awesome day! Dr D
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